While we are in winter here in Melbourne in July, if you are following the international news there are substantial heatwaves ocurring in North America, Europe, Siberia, China and Japan. Wildfires too in Greece, Sicily, Canada and Siberia. Sea Surface temperatures are elevated globally, with substantial marine heatwaves in North Atlantic particularly around the UK and Ireland. Thousands of maximum monthly and all-time records are being set.

Most days in July have been above the previous record temperatures for this time of year, globally. These are record global (60S-60N) temperatures, since satellite era measurements began in 1979, likely the hottest days on a global scale over the last 100,000+ years. VBut it is not a new normal but a taste of what is to come in future years.

We need to be prepared for extreme heat this summer, with more frequent, longer, hotter heatwaves. Have you considered how prepared you are?

Phoenix, Arizona As of 30 July, “The high temperature in the desert city with more than 1.6 million residents climbed past 110 F (43.3C) for the 30th straight day, the National Weather Service said. The previous record stretch of 110 F or above was for 18 days in 1974.” (US News 29 July 2023) In 2022 of the 423 heat related deaths in Phoenix, 56% were unhoused. Of the people who died indoors, all of them were living in homes and buildings that weren’t cooled. In 78% of cases, AC units were present but not functioning (The Guardian).

UK: New research estimates over 61,000 heat related deaths in Europe in 2022. And that comes after heat alerts and other climate adaptation measures implemented after the massive death toll of over 70,000 people from the 2003 heatwave in Europe. 

Down in Tasmania, this years record warm winter temperatures prompting unseasonal plant behaviour has gardeners wary of coming cold snaps. Record warm winter temperatures can affect winter chill needed for many plants, but particularly apples, pears, stone fruits and nuts, resulting in a loss of agricultural food production.

50 Degree Temperatures: Several years ago scientists predicted that Melbourne and Sydney may see temperatures exceed 50 degrees C. We might approach this threshold this summer.

El Nino: We need to also take into account El Nino weather pattern has not fully kicked in. Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions director Mark Howden said that the localised impacts of the major climate driver vary from country to country, but overall bring warmer-than-normal global average temperatures.

“The worrying thing here is that we have a very warm summer across the Northern Hemisphere but the effects of the emerging El Niño haven’t really been seen yet in terms of global temperatures,” Dr Howden said. “So when that does start to cut in, and it could well do over the next few months, we’ll see a continuation of that hot weather. So I think we’re in for a very extended hot period across the globe.”

ABC, 27 July 2023, July set to be Earth’s hottest month on record as extreme heat, wildfires, ravage northern hemisphere

For Australia, the northern hemisphere climate disasters offer a glimpse into the type of weather to come this summer for us.

Merri-bek Council

We note that Merri-bek Council has been pro-active in addressing Climate Change in Merri-bek. In 2016 Council developed the Urban Heat Island Effect Action Plan (PDF), and have policies on Trees and Urban Forest Strategy, Cooling the Upfield Corridor (PDF), and is rolling out public drinking water fountains around the municipality for people to keep hydrated, and using Council facilities for heat respite during opening hours.

Council recently in 2023 planted canopy trees in the CB Smith Reserve car park. They won’t have grown much by this summer but important in years to come to reduce the urban heat of the car park black asphalt in years to come.

This is in sharp contrast to the State Government/LXRP expansion project for Merlynston Station Car park, providing only limited trees and no future canopy shading over much of the length of the Upfield Shared Use Path past the station, used by pedestrians and cyclists. Climate Action Merribek argued for canopy shade as pasrt of the project and were essentially ignored..

Provision of Canopy shade should be an important consideration for the bike path to reduce direct heat which becomes a big issue during summer months with increasing extreme heat events.

See: Commuter car park upgrade at Merlynston, Dec 2021

Household Preparedness

On an individual and household level we need to be prepared for coping with extreme heat. Have a heat action plan ready.

• Use of air-conditioning.
• Use of pedestal fans.
• Checking on vulnerable people (elderly, children, those with medical conditions)
• Avoid going out in the hottest part of the day.
• Puting water out in our gardens for wildlife.
• Ensuring comfort of our pets by bringing them inside, ensuring they have water.
• Never, ever leave children or pets alone in a hot car
• Are there places we can seek respite from the heat. Libraries, Cooling Centres, Shopping Centres.
• Consider coolest room for sleeping for your body to recuperate. Use of fans.
• Wear lighter coloured clothes if out in the sun
• Stay well hydrated, and be aware of early signs of heat exhaustion and act early
• Keep a watch on BOM Heatwave Service for Australia
• Victoria Department of Health also issues Heat Health warnings when thresholds are exceeded

Heatwaves are a significant silent killer. Heat related deaths surpass all other extreme weather causes of mortality by a significant amount. See March 2016: Expert statement on extreme heat and health and Jan 2015: Heatwaves and Victoria’s Heat Health Alert warning system

How to (Re)Build Your City for Extreme Heat.

Some ideas by environmental scientist and urban designer Susan Dieterlen RLA PhD, Founder of DeftSpace Lab as posted to Mastodon (26 July)

1) Trees, trees, trees to reverse heat island, create shade, lessen ozone production

2) Shade structures, especially at bus stops and where people walk or gather

3) Green spaces in every neighborhood, for a respite from the heat

4) Schools, public buildings, churches as cooling centers in every neighborhood

5) Renewable power and microgrids to keep the power on during outages – especially at those cooling centers

6) Light-colored roofs. This alone is shockingly effective! Also rooftop solar

7) Insulate and weatherize buildings

8) Bring back the porch. Creates shade, shades windows, creates cooler pocket next to wall

9) Borrow building ideas from hot climates: colonades, courtyards

10) Build with thicker walls: structural insulated panels (SIPs) but also masonry, adobe, straw bale…

11) Transportation without combustion, because engines > heat and smog. Bikes, walking, EVs, micromobility and transit without combustion

12) Orient buildings to maximize airflow from wind. In the US, generally winds come from the west/southwest in summer

13) Use awnings outside windows

14) Rethink public use of spaces after dark – lighting, security, visibility

15) Capitalize on vacant lots and other overgrown urban wilds to create more green space and cooling vegetation.

Hottest July on Record

“The extreme weather which has affected many millions of people in July is unfortunately the harsh reality of climate change and a foretaste of the future,” said World Meteorological Organization’s Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas in a WMO media statement. “The need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is more urgent than ever before. Climate action is not a luxury but a must.”

“The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived.”

The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres highlighted need for rapid and urgent action, in rapidly phasing out Fossil Fuels

“The only surprise is the speed of the change. Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning. The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived. The air is unbreathable.  The heat is unbearable.  And the level of fossil fuel profits and climate inaction is unacceptable. Leaders must lead. No more hesitancy. No more excuses. No more waiting for others to move first. There is simply no more time for that.”

27 July 2023, Secretary-General’s opening remarks at press conference on climate

Analysis published by Dr Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at Leipzig University, has identified July 2023 being the warmist July and the warmist month on record, and likely the warmist for thousands of years..

Based on preliminary data, including forecast temperatures until the end of the month, it is virtually certain that July 2023 is going to be the warmest July by a wide margin with ~0.2°C (+/-0.1°C) above the previous record. Not only will it be the warmest July, but the warmest month ever in terms of absolute global mean temperature. We may have to go back thousands if not tens of thousands of years to find similarly warm conditions on our planet. The reason why we cannot say for sure July 2023 was warmer than any other month since the Eemian, is that our climate proxy data from tree rings etc have very coarse temporal resolution. Maybe there was the odd month during the Holocene that was warmer, as unlikely as it seems.

The record July comes as El Niño has just been declared in the tropical Pacific. While contributing to the warmth, the fundamental reason for why we are seeing such records is the continued release of vast amounts of greenhouse gases by humans. Since the effects of El Niño only fully emerge in the 2nd half of the year, June – and now July – are likely followed by more record warm months up until at least early 2024. Such dramatic climatic changes also trigger unprecedented marine and continental heat waves, increasing the risk for record shattering temperature extremes across the globe. China, Southern Europe and North America all saw record or near-record temperatures these past weeks. So does the North Atlantic ocean. Ironically, this does not exclude rather unsettled conditions in some regions. In fact, Northern and parts of Western Europe were lucky enough to sit under clouds for much of the month, while most other densely populated regions saw above average temperatures … just as one would expect on a rapidly warming planet.

References:

The Guardian, 15 July, 2023, ‘Hell on earth’: Phoenix’s extreme heatwave tests the limits of survival https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/14/phoenix-heatwave-summer-extreme-weather-arizona

John Englart, 11 July 2023, Over 61,000 heat related deaths during 2022 European summer, https://takvera.blogspot.com/2023/07/over-61000-heat-related-deaths-during.html See Ballester, J., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Méndez Turrubiates, R.F. et al. Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022. Nat Med (10 July 2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-z

ABC Rural, Fiona Breen, 18 July 2023, Record winter temperatures prompting unseasonal plant behaviour has gardeners wary of coming cold snaps https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-07-18/spring-flowers-blooming-mid-winter-amid-high-temperatures/102610098

Darbyshire, R., Webb, L., Goodwin, I. et al. Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia. Int J Biometeorol 57, 355–366 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0558-2

Susan Dieterlen, DeftSpace Lab, 26 July 2023, How to (Re)Build Your City for Extreme Heat https://deftspacelab.com/how-to-rebuild-your-city-for-extreme-heat/

Moreland Urban Heat Island Effect Action Plan 2016/2017 – 2025/2026 https://www.merri-bek.vic.gov.au/globalassets/areas/esd/esd-uhie-urban-heat-island-effect—action-plan—final-draft-for-council-june-2016.pdf

WMO, 27 July 2023, July 2023 is set to be the hottest month on record https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/july-2023-set-be-hottest-month-record

UN Secreatary General, 27 July 2023, Secretary-General’s opening remarks at press conference on climate https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2023-07-27/secretary-generals-opening-remarks-press-conference-climate

ABC, 27 July 2023, July set to be Earth’s hottest month on record as extreme heat, wildfires, ravage northern hemisphere https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-27/july-likely-hottest-month-record-united-nations-climate-change/102654812