August is the last month of Winter in Australia, but in 2024 Summer visited August with the Highest on record mean tempeartures averaged across Victoria, as well as large areas in other states.

As climate change is accelerating, temperatures are rising, winter is shrinking. This is what burning fossil fuels does. This will likely to be considered a cool August in 10 years time.

We can change what happens in the future but we also need to adapt to the changing and intensifying climate conditions.David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, at the University of Tasmania explains at The Conversation: ‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead.

Here is the summary for Australia from BOM:

• Australia’s national area-averaged mean temperature was 3.03 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average, the warmest August on record since 1910.
• It was the warmest August on record for New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, Queensland and South Australia, and the second-warmest on record for Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
• The national area-averaged mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures were the warmest on record, 3.50 °C and 2.56 °C above average respectively.
• Both mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures were warmer than average for most of Australia.
• South Australia had its warmest August mean maximum temperature on record, 4.63 °C above the 1961-1990 average.
• Area-averaged mean minimum temperatures were the warmest on record for all states, and the ninth-warmest on record for the Northern Territory.
• The national area-averaged August rainfall total was 4.8% below the 1961–1990 average.
• Victoria had its driest August since 2014, 55.4% below the 1961-1990 average.
• August rainfall was above average for large parts of Tasmania, Western Australia and Queensland, and parts of north-eastern New South Wales.
• Rainfall was below average for Victoria, much of southern South Australia, large parts of New South Wales and scattered areas across southern Western Australia, southern Northern Territory and south-western Queensland.

Here is how climate researcher Cameron H (@Hitchy04 on X) detailed some of the temperatures and temperature records for Australia in the last week of August:

August 22:

August 23:

August 24:

August 25:

August 26:

August 27:

August 28:

August 29:

August 30:

August 31:

Spring Bushfire risk

AFAC has issued the Spring bushfire risk for Australia, which highlights the areas of increased fire risk. But large parts of Australia are susceptible to fire weather, and extreme temperatures and reduced rainfall and soil moisture contribute to increased fire weather risk.

Jo Dodds from Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action has warned at 9 News that regional communities are bracing for a tough bushfire season and are already at breaking point.

“It was a really anxious day and it sadly confirms the stories and concerns we have that we’re heading into a really dangerous era for people, for environments, animals and the economy.”

Dodds described the winter temperatures in southeast Australia as “terrifying” and regional communities, including hers, are stressed and preparing for the worst.

“For people who’ve been through that we don’t feel safe unless it’s raining”

Dodds said some communities which are not generally in the historical danger zones for bushfires in Australia are also at risk as climate change evolves.

“It’s one thing in regional areas where we are very alert to the risk of bushfires and we’re prepared,” Dodds says.

“Urban areas and suburban areas like where the fire started yesterday, around Liverpool may not necessarily be as aware and that leaves them so vulnerable, they don’t even realise they need to be listening to the RFS or have their radio turned on.

“By the time many people realise they need to get somewhere safer, it is literally too late to leave. And that’s what we saw yesterday.”

Dodds warned Australia’s climate is currently on a trajectory where this terrifying scenario could play out more and more, reported 9 News.

We know what is driving increased fire weather and bushfire risk. It is climate change and the burning of Fossil Fuels. And Australia is still approving new coal and gas projects when the science, the International Energy Agency, and the UN Secretary General all say we should not be openning new fossil fuel projects.

For Victoria the spring bushfire outlook highlights that:

“Victoria has experienced a notably dry autumn and winter period,
particularly in the far west and southwest of the state. In these areas,
a substantial increase in the amount of dead and dry plant material
within forests will make it easier for fires to start and spread.
Noting a forecast warmer than average spring, and an average
rainfall outlook for most of the state, there is likely to be a stronger
than normal drying pattern across the state. This is likely to further
increase dead and dry plant material, particularly in the far west and
southwest of the state.
For spring, an increased risk of fire is indicated for the far west and
southwestern parts of Victoria, extending through the wimmera,
Grampians National Park and into the mallee country. The current
level of landscape dryness in these areas is strong enough that
without significant rainfall over the spring period, the flammability
of fuels in forests and woodlands will remain high. As a result, it
is highly likely that the bushfire season will begin early in these
regions, with the risk extending across areas of both private and
public dry forests and woodlands, and along roadsides. Grasslands
abutting these areas are likely to be variable, with some paddocks
dominated by residual cured grass while many paddocks have
superficial green-up, concealing underlying dryness (known as
‘green drought’). Curing is likely to advance earlier than normal in
these areas.”.

References:

Posts by Cameron H (@Hitchy04 on X) https://x.com/Hitchy04

BOM: Australia in August 2024 http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGC1AR0/202408.summary.shtml

AFAC, 4 September 2024, Seasonal Bushfire Outlook Spring 2024 https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/newsletter/article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-spring-2024

ABC News, 4 September 2024, Warnings over increased bushfire risk as Australia records warmest August on record, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-04/spring-bushfire-outlook-suggests-increased-risk-in-qld-nt-vic-sa/104304072

9 News, 1 September 2024, ‘We only feel safe when it’s raining’: Bushfire survivor warns Aussie suburbs need to prepare for summer https://www.9news.com.au/national/bushfire-season-survivor-warns-australian-suburbs-prepare-2024-2025-season/ded7e6af-4d39-464e-885a-0c3a3f20b535

David Bowman, The Conversation, 2 September 2024, ‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead. https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead-237857