Lots of news and reports in November to digest.

• The Energy Transition is well under way.
• The Future Made in Australia will turbo charge the transition in manufacturing, critical minerals and hydrogen. .
• New Vehicle Efficiency Scheme will start from 1 January 2025
• 2024 is predicted to be the hottest year on record globally
• Climate crisis to blame for dozens of ‘impossible’ heatwaves.
• summer bushfire outlook shows increased fire risk for “large areas of Australia”.
• Victoria is likely to have warmer than usual summer temperatures, both during the day and overnight. (BOM long Range Forecast)
• Above average summer rainfall is likely for most of Victoria.
• Labor has so far failed its election promise to reform National Environment Laws
• Labor continues supporting a $1.5 billion subsidy to Darwin’s MiddleArm Hub that supports Fracking the NT and Beetaloo Basin (See Community Meeting in Coburg)
• Australia is still approving new fossil fuel coal and gas projects.
• Climate change is increasing food prices and insurance affecting Cost of Living

The Prime Minister has scuttled a deal between Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek and the Greens to update the outdated Environment Protection Biodiversity and Conservation Act. These updates were a political promise from the 2022 and entailed establishing a Federal Environment Protection Agency and an Environmental Data Agency. (Guardian)

In a last minute rush to pass legislation in the last week of November some 31 bills were passed with either Coalition or Greens Support. This included 5 bills regarding the Future Made in Australia which provides finance and tax breaks up to $23bn for ‘biggest transformation since Industrial Revolution’ boosting domestic manufacturing and speeding up path to net zero. (Read the Climate Council Explainer)

The UN Climate Conference in Azerbaijan, COP29, has come and gone with no substantive advancement, with Russian Federation and Arab Block playing block and delay games. As well as the presence of a high number of Fossil Fuel Lobbyists.

In Victoria Climate Minister Lily D’Ambrosio released a much shorter climate statement of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions for 2022, While the Minister talked up the long term trend of reducing emissions, the data shows that year on year emissions from 2021 to 2022 have increased. Unfortunately this report lacks the substantive detail that was in previous reports.

At the Federal Level, Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen presented his Annual Climate Statement to Federal Parliament. While there are many programs in train to reduce emissions, so far the quarterly data of National Greenhouse Gas Inventory shows emissions as a whole without land clearing included essentially flatlining, The electricity sector continues to reduce emissions.

Climate and Cost of Living

People are hurting from the Cost of Living. This is partly due to the housing crisis with high mortgages and high rents. But increasing temperatures driven by global warming is also a cause.

Increase in food prices is partly inflation but also a component from climate driven global food production volatility. Back in March the ABC reported that higher temperatures mean higher food prices. Weather and climate shocks will cause the cost of food to rise 1.5 to 1.8 percentage points annually within a decade or so.

There may also be some excess profit taking by the supermarket duopoly, as they squeeze their producers and consumers. The Labor Government have bolstered ACCC with $30m to crack down on supermarkets’ deceptive pricing practices.

Damages from Climate driven extreme weather events are driving up Insurance costs which also adds to inflation and cost of living. A new report by Parents for Climate and the Climate Council examines how extreme weather is driving up insurance bills and finds parents are worried that climate change will make our cost of living crisis even worse.

The Opposition plan for Nuclear is hugely expensive, too risky, and takes too long, would maintain gas in the system producing pollution. Nuclear would massively drive up electricity prices, or be a burden on Government debt requiring cut backs probably in education and social services expenditure. Both of which would add to Cost of Living. (See our submission on Nuclear Energy for Australia)

Climate Diary

29 November 2024 – Plibersek had nature positive deal in writing before Albanese vetoed without her knowledge (Guardian)

28 November 2024 – Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen argues Climate Progress has been made in Australia’s 2024 Annual Climate Statement. But if you don’t include LULUCF (land clearing) negative emissions, the long term gains have been marginal at best, and Australia’s emissions have flatlined since the Government came to power in May 2022 (Climate Citizen)

28 November 2024 – Victoria releases latest (2022) Greenhouse gas emissions report showing year on year 4.3 megatonnes increase (Climate citizen)

While the long term trend is decreasing emissions, in 2022 emissions actually increased. This is most likely a rebound effect with regard to recovering from the Pandemic. But the lack of detail in the 2022 report of 16 pages is in stark contrast to previous years where reports were over 60 pages.

For the past four years of data: Total net emissions in 2019 were  86.8 MT CO2e, in 2020 86.2MT, in 2021 80.4MT,  and in 2022 84.7MT. So between 2021 and 2022 net greenhouse gas emissions (CO2e) increased by 4.3 megatonnes.

24 November 2024 – COP29 closed at 5.31am Sunday morning with a climate finance deal that many say is not nearly enough, pushback by Saudi Arabia to undermine transition away from Fossil Fuels and the ramping up renewables energy transition. 

Climate Finance: The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). The US$300 billion funding deal by 2035 is a floor, but from multiple sources. No Distinct allocation for Loss and Damage. Includes a stretch target with private investment capital of $1.3 Trillion. Many developing countries were not happy with the deal, and some were outright furious.

Biodiversity deleted. The ink is barely dry on the texts from biodiversity COP16, where governments agreed to bring climate and nature conventions together. Yet at COP29, all mention of biodiversity deleted from nearly every text. Almost all mention of ecosystems and food systems has been stripped from latest texts, despite it being the cheapest form of mitigation, adaptation and resilience. 

COP31 2026 decision: between Turkey and Australia pushed to the SBTI meeting in Bonn in June 2025

International Carbon credit trading: On Saturday evening, rules were agreed on how countries can create, trade and register emission reductions and removals as carbon credits after years of deadlock on article 6 of the Paris agreement. It paves the way for top emitters such as Germany and Japan to buy cheap removals and reductions from decarbonisation schemes in developing countries such as renewable energy schemes, rainforest protection or tree-planting, counting them towards their own targets. Trading could begin as soon as 2025 once technical bodies have agreed on the finer details. (Guardian) But there are many dangers in carbon trading in terms of credit integrity, additionality, double counting, transparency issues, and outright fraud.

If countries break UN carbon market rules when trading emissions with one another, the consequences, according to the new texts, are getting called naughty and being allowed to carry on regardless. Carbon Market Watch described the poor accountability and limited transparencyas a cowboy carbon market: “disappointing set of rules for a disappointingly open framework,” (Carbon Market Watch)

See also 

• Climate Land Ambition and Rights Alliance (CLARA) response on approval of Article 6 Market Mechanisms (CLARA Media Release PDF)
• Kate Dooley from Melbourne University: Guest Post: After nearly 10 years of debate, COP29’s carbon trading deal is seriously flawed (Climate Citizen)

Read about the collusion between the Presidency and Saudi Arabia: Revealed: Saudi Arabia accused of modifying official Cop29 negotiating text. Exclusive: News of changes to usually non-editable document ‘risks placing climate summit in jeopardy’ (Guardian)

India was furious when the decision was gavelled, accusing the process of being stage managed. Adam Morton at Guardian Live reports:

24 November 2024 – Centre for International Environment Law (CIEL) described the result in a metaphor:  “COP29 was a dumpster fire. Except it’s not trash that’s burning— it’s our planet. And developed countries are holding both the matches and the firehose.”(CIEL)

24 November 2024 – Revealed: Saudi Arabia accused of modifying official Cop29 negotiating text (Guardian) 

22 November 2024 – Early career Polar scientists issue emergency warning on sea level rise from Antarctica (Statement) “Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea level rise is possible within our lifetime,” (ABC News)

22 November 2024 – Former UN Envoy Mary Robinson says Poor nations may have to downgrade climate cash demands, arguing that Rich country budgets are stretched amid inflation, Covid and Ukraine war. Developing nations are asking for $1 trillion target. Robinson said $300bn should be “a minimum” and developed countries must also take steps to ensure that poor countries can access private sector finance and loans much more cheaply than at present, by “de-risking” finance for them. (Guardian)

22 November 2024: Coal-rich Indonesia to phase out all fossil-fuel power plants by 2040, says President Subianto. “We plan to phase out coal-fired and all fossil-fueled power plants within the next 15 years. Our plan includes building over 75GW of renewable energy capacity during this time. This issue will exacerbate poverty and hunger. Therefore, for Indonesia, there is no alternative. We are fully committed to taking decisive actions to reduce global temperatures, protect the environment, and address the crisis.” (Guardian Live)(Indonesia Gov on G20)

Indonesia is the world’s biggest coal exporter, surpassing Australia in recent years. Matt Webb from E3G commented “Indonesia is the fifth or sixth biggest global emitter and it’s been growing its coal pipeline rapidly for the last 10 years. So this is a country with huge coal reserves and which had a huge new coal plant pipeline. Until the Cop26 summit in 2021, it hadn’t really indicated that it would change that approach. So what’s happened in the last two years is really dramatic – it’s a significant turnaround for a major exporter and a major user of coal power,” 

There is a lesson for Australia in this. Stop approving new coal and gas, start planning to phase out export coal and gas.

21 November 2024 – NGOs urge Australia to act in final days of COP29 to lead on landing a climate finance agreement  that ensures a needs-based new global climate finance goal of over $1 trillion.  (Action Aid)

21 November 2024 – New investment mandate for Australia’s Future Fund to invest in housing, infrastructure and energy transition. It is the first time in 15 years the mandate for the Sovereign wealth fund’s statement of expectations has been updated  (Guardian)

20 November 2024 – Australia has joined with 24 other countries and the European Union in a Call to Action for No new Coal in National Climate Plans (Powering Past Coal Alliance) Meanwhile Australia is happy approving new coal mines for the export market (Renew Economy)

20 November 2024 – Climate Change Performance Index report for 2025 published. Australia moves backwards two places to 52nd ranking. (Climate Citizen)

20 November 2024 – New report argues dramatically reducing Australia’s use of gas would secure the future of industrial manufacturing and the jobs of hundreds of thousands of workers. (Lock the Gate) Turning Down the Gas report finds at least 90% of industrial gas use can already be electrified or regassed with green hydrogen, and technology solutions are rapidly being developed for the remaining 10%. Key findings:

• The three LNG terminals on Curtis Island near Gladstone make up 30 percent of East Coast industrial gas demand. Restricting the sale of uncontracted gas for export would address short term shortage concerns, while the electrification or phase down of two of the three East Coast LNG facilities by 2035 would reduce domestic gas demand by 79 PJ. 
• Replacing gas use in manufacturing with electricity using technology that is commercially available today would reduce demand by 112 PJ by 2035.
• Doing the same in commercial buildings would reduce gas demand by 25 PJ by 2035.
• “Regassing” and substituting metals smelting and refining, iron and steel manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing with green hydrogen would cut gas use by 62 PJ by 2035.
• Targeted government support including more research could help truly “hard to abate” sectors like cement and glass manufacturing wean themselves off fossil gas by 8 PJ by 2035.

20 November 2024 – Chris Bowen delivers Australia’s national climate statement at COP29 in Baku. This includes an announcement of $50 million to the Loss and Damage Fund. (Climate Citizen)

19 November 2024 – UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell urges COP29 to agree on new climate finance target in response to the G20 Rio de Janeiro Leaders’ Declaration on Tuesday 19 November 2024. “G20 Leaders have sent a clear message to their negotiators at COP29: do not leave Baku without a successful new finance goal. This is in every country’s clear interests.” (UNFCCC News)

19 November 2024 – Australia declines to join UK and US-led nuclear energy development pact (ABC News | Guardian) See more at Tracking Australian Ministers and Australian pledges at COP29.

19 November 2024 – Countries could use nature to ‘cheat’ on net zero targets, scientists warn (Guardian) By relying on natural carbon sinks such as forests and peatlands to offset emissions, governments can appear closer to goals than they actually are. (Study) Australia is a fine example of doing this, relying on LULUCF and carbon offsets with querstionable integrity.

19 November 2024 – 2nd India-Australia Annual Summit. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had a bilateral with Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi on the side of the G20 in Brasil. Most notable was Point 7 on India-Australia Renewable Energy Partnership (REP), but critical minerals and Make in India’ and ‘Future Made in Australia’ have complementarity and collaborative potential (PM media release)

7. Australia and India have shared ambition to move faster, work together and deploy our complementary capabilities to drive climate action. The Prime Ministers welcomed the launch of the India-Australia Renewable Energy Partnership (REP) which would provide the framework for practical cooperation in priority areas such as solar PV, green hydrogen, energy storage, two-way investment in renewable energy projects and allied areas; and upgraded skills training for the renewables workforce of the future.

18 November 2024 – Study: Quantifying international public finance provision needs for the new UN climate finance goal (Nature Climate Action) estimates $1-15tn are needed in grant equivalent funding.

18 November 2024 – Vanuatu and Tuvalu call on Australia to stop approving new fossil fuel developments at COP29, Australia accused of ‘exporting climate destruction’ on tiny Pacific neighbours with massive gas expansion plans. Labor government ‘not acting in good faith’ when it stands on global stage and promotes its climate credentials, special envoy at Cop29 says (Guardian) 

18 November 2024 – Greens drop climate trigger demand in attempt to restart Nature Positive talks with Labor (Guardian)

18 November 2024 – Climate crisis to blame for dozens of ‘impossible’ heatwaves, studies reveal. (Guardian) Stark evidence of how global heating is already supercharging deadly weather beyond anything ever experienced by humanity

17 November 2024 – UN warns of ‘economic carnage’ if G20 leaders cannot agree on climate finance for poor countries (Guardian)

16 November 2024 – Almost 500 carbon capture lobbyists granted access to Cop29 climate summit (Guardian) (CIEL) Also  Over 1,700 coal, oil and gas lobbyists granted access to Cop29, says report (Guardian)

16 November 2024 – Fossil fuel bosses get ‘red carpet’ at Cop29 despite concerns over influence (Guardian)

16 November 2024 – Argentina: Fears grow that Milei will withdraw Argentina from Paris climate accord (Guardian) This follows a report 14 Nov that Argentina withdraws negotiators from Cop29 summit (Guardian)

16 November 2024 – China faces crucial decisions on climate policy during second Trump term (Guardian)

15 November 2024 – Civil Society Organizations at COP29 call on Australia, Japan, and South Korea to Stop Their Fossil Fuel Cooperation (Fossil Free Japan)

“South Korea and Japan are the second and third largest providers of public finance for fossil fuels, having spent approximately USD 10 billion and 7 billion respectively on new oil, gas, and coal projects each year on average from 2020 to 2022. The countries continue to channel billions into fossil fuel projects abroad, supporting fossil gas extraction projects in Australia, such as the Barossa and Scarborough gas carbon bombs, and Mozambique, such as the Mozambique LNG project.

“Despite an expected LNG glut and projections from the International Energy Agency that demand for LNG will drastically drop in the following decades as countries uphold their climate commitments, both Japan and South Korea have been justifying their dirty investment activities under the guise of energy security. Yet recent explosive research has found that Japan, already facing declining domestic demand, has been on-selling imported fossil gas to other countries, particularly in Southeast Asia.

“To sustain its reselling activities, Japan has invested heavily in manufacturing demand for fossil gas in South and Southeast Asia by sinking investments into import infrastructure; providing ‘technical support’ to the drafting of energy policies; and pushing technologies that prolong the lifespan of these gas projects.”

Erin Ryan, Senior International Campaigner, Solutions for Climate Australia said:

“First Nations Australians have been custodians of their country for millennia, and have been defending it from destructive fossil gas extraction for decades. Yet, fuelled by finance and faux demand from Japan and South Korea, Australia continues to expand and export polluting fossil gas to Asia. This trilateral cooperation serves corporations over communities, and is derailing the energy transition in our region. It’s well past time for these players to shift from gas to green exports, and say sayonara to fossil fuels.”

14 November 2024 – New report by Parents for Climate and the Climate Council examines how extreme weather is driving up insurance bills and finds parents are worried that climate change will make our cost of living crisis even worse. (Parents For Climate) The report includes YouGov polling which shows:

• More than half of Australian families have reduced the amount or quality of food they’re buying and one third said their children had been impacted by a lower variety and quality of food.
• Insurance stress is causing 71% of parents to worry about higher premiums due to more intense and frequent unnatural disasters driven by climate pollution.
• Two in three families have cut back on heating and cooling their homes.
• The vast majority (71%) of parents are worried about both the rising cost of living and climate change.

The report argues that Overwhelmingly, parents want access to popular solutions to our cost of living and climate crises, like solar panels, household batteries and energy efficient appliances. But many can’t afford the upfront costs or live in rentals, and need help from governments to access upgrades that cut bills and climate pollution at the same time.

13 November 2024 – This year has been masterclass in human destruction, UN chief tells Cop29 (Guardian) COP29 UN Secretary-General António Guterres Calls for emergency emmissions reduction, climate adaptation and more climate finance (Climate Citizen)

13 November 2024 – Soaring grocery prices helped Trump to victory. The climate crisis is only going to make this worse. From olive oil to butter, extreme weather is pushing up the cost of living and having a dramatic political impact. Economists need a solution (Guardian Opinion)

12 November 2024 Guardian Live Blog Day 1; Carbon credit trade rules approved, breaking lengthy deadlock. Critics say approval of ‘climate credits’ rules on day one of Cop29 was rushed (Guardian) “This has resulted in risky rules that will lead to human rights violations and environmental harm” (CIEL). Also UK announces a 2035 pledge of 81% emissions cut compared with 1990, (Guardian) Greta Thunberg on COP29: Greenwashing Azerbaijan’s Extreme Human Rights Abuses and Ethnic Cleansing (Youtube)

11 November 2024 – WMO State of the Climate 2024 Update for COP29 (WMO) WMO issues “Red Alert at the sheer pace of climate change in a single generation, turbo-charged by ever-increasing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. 2015-2024 will be the warmest ten years on record; the loss of ice from glaciers, sea-level rise and ocean heating are accelerating; and extreme weather is wreaking havoc on communities and economies across the world. The January – September 2024 global mean surface air temperature was 1.54 °C (with a margin of uncertainty of ±0.13°C) above the pre-industrial average, boosted by a warming El Niño event, according to an analysis of six international datasets used by WMO.”

11 November 2024 – Fifty-year extension for one of Australia’s biggest CO2 emitters likely after WA ditches emissions-reduction rules. Extending life of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas processing plant on Burrup Peninsula could result in billions of tonnes of climate pollution, critics say (Guardian) Australia still digging a deeper hole exacerbating the Climate Crisis.

11 November 2024 – Darwin’s planned Middle Arm industrial hub could face lengthy delays after Infrastructure Australia rejects business case (ABC News) Middle Arm enables Beetaloo gas fracking with an LNG export terminal. This is a $1.5 billion Federal subsidy for Fossil gas rather than expand renewables, jobs, Tafe skills, and facilities in remote communities as put forward in an ECNT report Recharging the Territory.

11 November 2024 – Talk about cost of living driven by global heating: Extreme weather cost $2tn globally over past decade, report finds. US suffered greatest economic losses, report commissioned by International Chamber of Commerce finds, followed by China and India. (Guardian)

11 November 2024 – After the extreme rainfall and devastating floods killing 223 people in Valencia Spain, Mass protests erupt over official inaction in failure to warn alerts and flood mitigation (WSWS)

11 November 2024 – Auspol: Move in LNP to drop net zero by 2050 target rejected. Nationals leader David Littleproud, shadow transport minister Bridget McKenzie and Senate Liberal leader Simon Birmingham have all rejected a backbench push by Matt Canavan and Keith Pitt to use Donald Trump’s election in the US to abandon support for net zero by 2050. (Guardian)

10 November 2024 – After Trump re-election, UK will lead efforts to save Cop29, says Miliband (Guardian) Energy secretary says Britain must work on vital alliances with other countries following victory of climate-denier Trump. mmm Australia should step up and support UK.

10 November 2024 – The Australians who sounded the climate alarm 55 years ago: ‘I’m surprised others didn’t take it as seriously’ (Guardian)

9 November 2024 – COP29 chief exec filmed promoting fossil fuel deals (BBC)

8 November 2024 – 3 leaders make the case for climate finance solidarity levies (Project Syndicate) Such levies include: “A global levy of 0.1% on stock and bond trades could raise up to $418 billion per year. A levy on shipping of $100 per ton of carbon dioxide could raise $80 billion per year. A levy on fossil-fuel extraction of $5 per ton of CO2 could raise $210 billion per year.”

7 November 2024  – UNEP Adaptation Gap report released (UNEP) As climate impacts intensify and hit the world’s poorest, The Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come hell and high water finds that nations must dramatically increase climate adaptation efforts, starting with a commitment to act on finance.

7 November 2024 – UN climate talks could undermine precaution on geoengineering called for by the biodiversity convention. (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung)

7 November 2024 – ‘Ecosystems are collapsing’: one of Australia’s longest rivers has lost more than half its water in one section, research shows (Guardian)

7 November 2024 – 2024 ‘virtually certain’ to be hottest on record, finds Copernicus Climate Change Service. Global temperatures for the past 12 months were 1.62C greater than the 1850-1900 average, when humanity started to burn vast volumes of coal, oil and gas. (Guardian)

6 November 2024 – Trump wins US presidency, plus Republican Senate and Likely the House of Reps. Carbon Brief did analysis in March what a Trump win would mean for US emissions: an extra 4bn tonnes by 2030(Carbon Brief) This win comes after the devestation of North Carolina by Hurricane Helene, and with Nearly all of US states in drought conditions after summer of record heat. American Democratic Decay: Australia Must Find New Friends (Lyrebird Dreaming) Bill Hare from Climate Analytics did an Op-Ed: Donald Trump can’t stop global climate action. If we stick together, it’s the US that will lose out. How damaging this presidency is to the planet depends very much on how other countries react. There’s no time to waste (Guardian) Second Trump Presidency of climate denial will challenge global climate action response (Climate Citizen)

6 November 2024 – Japanese Government and banks resisting move away from coal. No Clear Exit: Japan’s resistance to a real coal phaseout. Japanese banks provided US$23.5 billion in coal finance between 2021 and 2023. (Reclaim Finance/Kiko Network)

4 November 2024 – Montreal Protocol continues to deliver on ozone reduction and climate (Climate Citizen)

4 November 2024 – Why did so many die in Spain? Because Europe still hasn’t accepted the realities of extreme weather. By climatologist Friederike Otto who founded World Weather Attribution (Guardian) Much of his argument could be directed to Australia and experience of floods, heatwaves and bushfires.

4 November 2024 – Legal experts say Trump could quit Paris pact – but leaving UNFCCC much harder (Climate Home News) Meanwhile, China urges US to hold the line on climate policy, regardless of election outcome (SCMP)

4 November 2024 – New Australian report on climate icreasing Insurance costs (Australia Institute)

3 November – Cop16 ends in disarray and indecision despite biodiversity breakthroughs (Guardian) Conservation summit agrees global levy on drugs from nature’s genetics and stronger indigenous representation, but developing nations furious at unmet funding promises. See also: Climate Citizen: Australia at Biological Diversity COP16 in Columbia

1 November 2024 – A second US exit could ‘cripple’ the Paris climate agreement, warns UN chief (Guardian) António Guterres says treaty will endure but urges US to remain amid reports that Trump plans to withdraw from the climate negotiating framework entirely. This election is America’s climate and energy fork in the road (Carbon Tracker)

1 November 2024 – NSW police take legal action to prevent climate activists blockading Port of Newcastle (Guardian) 91 civil society organisations have now signed a statement supporting the right to peaceful protest.

1 November 2024 – Gas companies export $36 billion of gas from Queensland, pay zero tax … again (Australia Institute)

1 November 2024 – Challenging the Systemic Under-pricing of Climate Damages Within the Global Financial System (Carbon Tracker) a report for Financial consultatnts, Super and Pension Funds to closely consider.

Read October 2024 Climate Diary News

Read September 2024 Climate Diary News

References:

This post is based on John Englart’s Climate Citizen post: Australia at COP29 Climate Diary. https://takvera.blogspot.com/2024/08/australia-at-cop29-climate-diary.html