Australian and New Zealand National Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC) has published the sping bushfire outlook for Australia.

“Following above average rainfall experienced during consecutive La Niña years, the Bureau of Meteorology predicts a switch to higher chances of above average temperatures and below average rainfall for almost the entire country.

Recent rainfall means many regions have also seen increased fuel growth, which is contributing to increased risk of bushfire for many regions of Australia during the spring season.”

AFAC Spring outlook

Reporters with the Age, Brian Wilson, Rachel Eddie and Benjamin Preiss, did a story on Victoria cuts water bombing capacity ahead of risky fire season in which they present that Victoria’s water bombing capabilities have been slashed by almost a third. They quote from emergency responders, pilots and experts warnings that Victoria may not be prepared for the hot and dry summer ahead.

Based on leaked documents, they argue Victoria’s total aerial firefighting capability has fallen about 40,000 litres below last summer’s level.

The story reminds us that the royal commission into the Black Summer fires called on governments to expand aerial firefighting fleets because longer fire seasons meant jurisdictions had less capacity to share resources. People working in the emergency management sector say that surge capacity was going backwards with diminishing ability to share aircraft.

Former emergency manager commissioner Craig Lapsley told the Age that aerial firefighting was becoming increasingly important.

“Aerial resources are becoming more critical in firefighting,” he said. “To me, it’s not the right time to be reducing resources.”

Fire scientist David Bowman says there has been little progress nationwide on the Bushfire Royal Commission’s 80 recommendations. He argues while aerial firefighting is important, and perhaps the simplest measure, that  more should be spent on preventative measures through communities and fuel load management.

“You need aerial firefighting, that’s a fact, But not at the expense of everything else. They’re not even doing that bit, which is politically the simplest. You can understand why fire scientists are depressed and shaking their heads in disbelief.”

Environment Minister Ingrid Stitt said in Parliament on Thursday that the state did 234 planned burns in 2022-23 and another 18 since July 1.

The aerial fire fighting fleet is progressively procured. However this is problematic this season as there are supply chain blockages that complicates the issue, as weel as a shortage of Pilots which suppress surge capacity.

This is all ocurring while we are seeing major wildfires in the Northern Hemisphere: in Greece, Spain, Nothern Africa, Canary Islands, Canada and Hawaii.

To watch the full AFAC press conference via SBS:

References:

AFAC, 23 August 2023, Spring season Bushfire outlook 2023, https://www.afac.com.au/auxiliary/publications/newsletter/article/seasonal-bushfire-outlook-spring-2023

Brian Wilson, Rachel Eddie and Benjamin Preiss, The Age, 18 August 2023, Victoria cuts water bombing capacity ahead of risky fire season https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-cuts-water-bombing-capacity-ahead-of-risky-fire-season-20230814-p5dwff.html