Australian capital cities are set to swelter through twice as many days above 35°C by the end of the century, a detailed analysis from the Climate Council has found. This includes for the suburbs of Merri-bek.

By reducing climate pollution globally now we could slash the number of scorching days by an average of 20 percent across Australian communities.

Adding new coal and gas projects just drives more global heating and increases the statistical number of extreme heat days. Extreme heat reduces productivity and poses health challenges. Extreme heat kills more people than any other weather-related disaster.

The Climate Council based their analysis on thousands of data points from CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology’s Climate Change in Australia project. The Climate Council was able to develop a new heat map tool with scenario projection points of 2050 and 2090, based on 3 scenarios, no action, existing action, and a more ambitious scenario based ion the science called necessary action. Have a play with the new interactive heat map tool.

Amanda McKenzie, Climate Council CEO said: “Climate pollution is rapidly turning up the heat in Australia. Whether we live in cities or regional towns, all Australians are sweltering through even hotter days and killer heatwaves.

“Australia must keep building out renewable energy to completely phase out pollution from coal, oil and gas and protect our families from unlivable temperatures. If we don’t take further steps now, some neighbourhoods and communities will become so hot people will struggle to live there. It’s not something that’s far off, it’s here now and it will define the coming decades.

“This map makes it clear that Australia’s pathway to cut climate pollution this decade will play a critical role in determining the future health and prosperity of entire communities across our country.”  

Head of Research at the Climate Council Dr Simon Bradshaw said: “This tool empowers Australians to see the real impacts of climate pollution in their own neighbourhoods.

“Choices being made this decade will dramatically affect the kind of community our children and grandchildren inherit. Cutting climate pollution further will limit the number of extremely hot days and the number of very warm nights we’re forced to endure, and ensure a better future for all Australians.”

Doctors for the Environment Australia executive director Dr Kate Wylie said: “Extreme heat is lethal. Dangerously hot temperatures put our health and wellbeing at serious risk, and threaten our families, community and animals. 

“As well as the risks of heat exhaustion and heat stroke in extreme conditions, we know that heat exposure increases the risks of many serious illnesses, such as heart and respiratory diseases, mental health presentations and premature births.

“Older adults, infants and young children, pregnant women, people with underlying health conditions and those living in vulnerable communities have a heightened risk of illness during heatwaves. But by embracing renewable energy and cutting climate pollution, we can shield our communities from the worst consequences of extreme heat and safeguard our future health.”

Key findings and local impact

Western Sydney / New South Wales

• Based on existing action to reduce climate pollution, Western Sydney will swelter through twice as many days above 35°C by 2050 and three weeks above 35°C every summer.
• The urban heat island effect notably worsens living temperatures in Western Sydney, with materials like asphalt and concrete amplifying heat. This can elevate temperatures by as much as 10 degrees during extreme heat, exacerbating climate change and urban development challenges.

Darwin / Northern Territory

• Based on existing action to reduce climate pollution, Darwin could experience four times as many days over 35°C each year by mid-century, with residents facing almost three months of extra days above 35°C by 2050.
• If no action was taken to reduce climate pollution, by 2090, Darwin could experience a whopping 283 days over 35°C each year – an increase of 243 days – and a similar number of nights above 25°C. In other words, by the time a child born today is entering retirement, the city could be facing temperatures over 35°C for more than nine months of the year.
• Housing in remote communities in the Northern Territory is often old and badly constructed, with little insulation. Climate change is turning these houses into ‘dangerous hot boxes’ that threaten the health of residents, especially older people and those with existing health conditions.

Perth / Western Australia

• Based on existing action to reduce climate pollution, Perth could swelter through twice as many days above 35°C by 2050.
• This summer, people in Perth have had a taste of the hotter future to come, with unprecedented late-summer heatwaves. In February, Perth set a new record for the number of days over 40°C in a single month, with 7 consecutive days of sweltering heat.

Melbourne / Victoria

• Based on existing action to reduce climate pollution, Melbourne residents face double the number of days above 35°C by 2050.
• Extreme heat poses a growing threat to sporting competitions such as the Australian Open, challenging player safety. Losing tournaments like the Australian Open will negatively impact Victoria’s economy and Australia’s international reputation as a major event destination. The Australian Open has had to developed a Heat Policy. But the problem also poses a challenge for community sport as we reported upon early this month.

Canberra / ACT

• Based on existing action to reduce climate pollution, Canberra residents face twice as many days above 35°C by 2050. 

Brisbane / Queensland

• Based on existing action to reduce climate pollution, Brisbane faces three times as many days above 35°C by 2050 and four times as many by 2090.
• Extreme heat is critically endangering flying fox populations, causing mass fatalities and pushing the species towards extinction.

Adelaide / South Australia

• Based on existing action to reduce climate pollution, Adelaide faces an extra week of days above 35°C by mid-century.
• South Australia’s wine regions, including the Barossa Valley, face threats from climate change with rising temperatures hastening grape ripening, impacting quality. Adapting through new grape varieties or relocating vineyards remains costly and complex.

Hobart / Tasmania

• Based upon existing action to reduce climate pollution, by mid-century the extreme temperatures Hobart experienced over the 2019-20 summer could become the norm.
• Rising sea surface temperatures off Tasmania’s coast, which are rising nearly four times faster than the global average, is endangering Tasmania’s marine life and fisheries. The longest marine heatwave in 2016 devastated commercial species.

Heat Health in Victoria

A large study involving hundreds of thousands of Victorian patients has confirmed ambulance callouts for heat-related chest pain rise notably as temperatures increase.

“The findings suggest the state should brace for a rise in patients presenting to hospital with heat-related chest pains”

Here is The Age article about the study. The Age claims it is new but the study was first published online in July 2022.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/as-the-weather-heats-up-victoria-is-entering-a-chest-pain-danger-zone-20240220-p5f6bz.html

The research article at ScienceDirect:
Temperature-related chest pain presentations and future projections with climate change (July 2022) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S004896972204815X

The study Conclusions:
“This study identified evidence of increased risk of chest pain presentations with heat and cold exposure, especially among younger patients and patients of lower socioeconomic status. In Melbourne, Australia heat related chest pain presentation rates are projected to increase under medium- and high-emission climate change scenarios, highlighting the importance of risk mitigation strategies to minimise adverse health impacts on hotter days.”

Melbourne Heat Health Alert threshold temperatures

Note: Heat Health alerts are issued when the Mean daily temperatures is projected to reach 30C even though there is scientific statistical data showing a threshold of 3-13% increase in mortality passed at a Daily mean temperature of 28C.

“Climate Action Merribek looked at Victoria’s Heat Health Alert System and current research into statistical threshold points for heat related morbidity (illness) and mortality. We believe the most recent research shows the current trigger temperatures for heat health alerts are set a little too high and need to be reviewed to take into account the latest scientific and health statistics research.”

“Research by Loughnan et al (2013) shows the statistical threshold point in Melbourne for increase in mortality of 3-13 per cent is at a daily average (Tmean) of 28C.”

“Currently the trigger point for a health heat alert for the Central region, including Melbourne, is a daily average temperature (Tmean) of 30C.”

You can read the Ministerial letters in reply asking for a review of the Heat Health alert temperature threshold here in 2016.
https://climateactionmerribek.org/2016/01/16/extreme-heat-events-requires-climate-adaptation-and-building-resilience/

Background

Englart, J, Climate Citizen, February 2015, Climate Change and Heatwaves in Melbourne – A Review https://takvera.blogspot.com/2015/02/climate-change-and-heatwaves-in.html

Climate Council, Heatwaves, Hotter, Longer, More Often, August 2014, https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/heatwaves-report/

Climate Council, March 2016, The Silent Killer: Climate Change and the Health Impacts of Extreme Heat  https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/silentkillerreport/

Climate Action Merribek, MAY 26, 2020, Heat-related deaths under-estimated as temperatures and extreme heat events increase https://climateactionmerribek.org/2020/05/26/heat-related-deaths-under-estimated-as-temperatures-and-extreme-heat-events-increase/

Climate Action Merribek, JANUARY 20, 2018, Study: 50 degree extreme heat days possible in Melbourne https://climateactionmerribek.org/2018/01/20/study-50-degree-extreme-heat-days-possible-in-melbourne/

Climate Action Merribek, MARCH 7, 2018, Study finds Heart attacks more likely due to extreme temperature variation https://climateactionmerribek.org/2018/03/07/study-finds-heart-attacks-more-likely-due-to-extreme-temperature-variation/