The state government has promised $80 million for planning work on the Upfield Line Duplication with estimated completion by 2033. But it looks possible that the Liberal/National Coalition will win the state election – probably as a minority government. What will that mean for the Upfield Line?

The Upgrade Upfield Train Line campaign is frustrated with the delay. They want the line duplicated by 2030, with a commitment to fund the project in full. (We agree!) Merri-bek Council also sounds frustrated. Mayor Nat Abboud said, “The Victorian Government’s pledge is an important step, but it must not remain a promise on paper. … We urge the State Government to commence upgrades as soon as possible. Let’s get shovels in the ground; our community has waited long enough.”

The announcement is still a great win for the community – well done to everyone who has written or phoned MPs or attended a rally over the years. (Read the campaign history here.)

Then there is that pesky problem of a state election – in two months time. If Labor gets back, or forms a minority government with Greens support, the duplication looks likely. The Greens are actively campaigning for the Upfield Upgrade. But it looks more likely that we will have a Coalition Government, probably with the support of One Nation. What then will happen to the Upfield Line?

Improving public transport is not just a climate issue. It also addresses the cost of living, given the horrendous cost of running a motor vehicle. With more people using public transport, road congestion is reduced. You would hope that all political parties would want better public transport. But the Liberal Party does not have a good track record – they wanted to close the Upfield Line in 1980 and again in 1993!

If we think about electorates, the Liberal Party has little hope of election wins along the Upfield Corridor – these are likely to be Labor and Greens seats. But further north, it is a different story. Melbourne’s Northern Growth Corridor is growing rapidly and residents are crying out for more infrastructure. These areas are now held by the Labor Party, but swings to the Liberals and/or One Nation are looking likely.

The Upfield Line Duplication is an essential first step in improving public transport further north. The plan is to join the Upfield and Craigieburn Lines, electrify the line to Wallan, and build new stations at Beveridge and Cloverton. Currently residents north of Craigieburn Station have an hourly VLine service with stations only at Wallan and Donnybrook. More details on the plan here. They then plan to run more trains from the north down the Upfield Line to free up capacity on the Craigieburn Line (which is already constrained). The Brunswick Level Crossing Removals is also important in allowing the Upfield Line to be used more intensively without disrupting east-west traffic in Brunswick.

The current Liberal Party MP who has an interest in this area is Evan Mulholland. He is the Upper House member for the Northern Metropolitan Region, and is the Shadow Minister for Transport Infrastructure. At a candidates forum in 2022, Mulholland described himself as a public transport nerd who uses public transport frequently. He has advocated for more trains for the Upfield and Craigieburn Lines, and for better buses.

In an interview with the ABC on Monday Mulholland criticised the Labor government for delaying the Brunswick level crossing removals: “Not into the next term of parliament, but into the following term of parliament … Whenever this government needs somewhere to cut, it picks the Upfield line, and it picks the northern suburbs.” However, when Mulholland was asked by the channel 9 news what the Liberal Party’s plans were for the Upfield Line, he replied: “We’ll have more to say on comprehensive rail packages”.

Of course we cannot predict what will happen after the election – we have seen too many broken promises. And the fact that the Victorian Liberal Party and One Nation don’t have public transport policies two months out from an election makes it hard to take them seriously. (Even the minor parties on the left have public transport policies.)

What this does suggest, however, is that both the Labor and Liberal Parties are vulnerable in the Northern Growth Corridor, and that the state of the Upfield Line has implications not only for the residents of Merri-bek, but also our neighbours to the north in Hume, Mitchell Shire and Whittlesea. Watch this space!